US-Iran ceasefire: Nuclear issue postponed, an Expert Explains why next 60 days are crucial

On June 15 (Monday), the US and Iran agreed on the framework of a peace deal that extends the current ceasefire for 60 days.US President Donald Trump announced that he was authorising the immediate removal of the US Naval blockade of Iranian ports. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif simultaneously announced that both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of all fronts, including Lebanon, and that the official signing ceremony would be held in Switzerland on June 19.Notably, the US President rescinded an initial announcement of the “toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz”, stating instead that the Strait would open after the Friday signing. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council subsequently confirmed that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) had been reached with Washington. While the full text of the Memorandum is to be published after Friday, the draft reportedly includes, among other clauses, the following: Iran will immediately open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels while the US Navy will remove its blockade within 30 days of the MoU’s signing. The US (and regional allies) will release $24 billion in Iranian frozen assets, not impose new sanctions on Iran until a final agreement, temporarily waive oil sanctions and negotiate a reconstruction and development plan (reportedly worth $300 billion) for Iran within 60 days of the MoU. The US will militarily withdraw from areas surrounding Iran. And Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons and maintain the status quo on its nuclear programme — that means no further enrichment — pending a final agreement within 60 days of the MoU’s signing. What catalysed the MoU? In the immediate lead up to President Trump’s announcement, Israeli Defence Forces bombed Beirut, prompting Iran to prepare a retaliatory response while Iranian Speaker MB Ghalibaf warned that the US had to fulfill its commitments. Almost immediately after Israel’s strike, Trump stated that the attack “should not have happened”, especially “on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal”, and that there should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon (or by Hezbollah)”.Story continues below this ad A small motorboat passes anchored vessels in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Thursday, June 11, 2026. AP/PTI(AP06_11_2026_000304B)Apart from proving that the Lebanon front’s inextricable relationship with Iran’s commitment to the ceasefire had registered in Washington, the Israeli strike evidently forced the Trump White House to announce an immediate lifting of the US naval blockade, instead of the reported 30-day post-MoU timeline. This has been a core Iranian pre-condition for negotiations and one that was consistently denied by US officials across the ceasefire period. In turn, Iran refrained from striking Israel (but did not commit to a full, unqualified opening of the Strait). Even as the MoU is yet to be officially released, two aspects are already clear — that the nuclear deal has been deferred, and that the 60-day period following the MoU will be a litmus test for the Iranian position in particular. Deferring the nuclear question It is now widely acknowledged that the US-Israeli war both failed in its strategic objectives and yielded unprecedented Iranian geopolitical gains which strengthened Iran’s bargaining position vis-à-vis the nuclear question. The MoU, which virtually leaves the nuclear question at the status quo before the war, that is as on February 27, is meant to re-balance the bargaining scales.Story continues below this ad Before the war, the US had two principal instruments of leverage (apart from being the overwhelmingly superior conventional and nuclear force). The first is the historic advantage of comprehensive and targeted sanctions having effectively forced Iran out of the global economic order. The second, more recently secured advantage, is the severe damage caused to Iran’s new nuclear enrichment and processing facilities in Natanz, Isf