Tropical depression forecast: Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana face heavy rain, storm threat
Here's what you need to know.Where is Tropical Depression Two now?As of 10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC) Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Two was located:-About 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida-Near 28.0°N, 85.3°W-Moving north-northwest at 2 mph (4 km/h)The depression has:-Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph (45 km/h)-Minimum central pressure: 1011 mbAccording to the NHC, the system has only recently developed a well-defined low-level circulation after several days as an area of low pressure over the Gulf.Why did the NHC classify it as a tropical depression?Forecasters said the disturbance has become organized enough to receive a tropical cyclone designation."The area of low pressure... has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation," the NHC said.However, the agency noted that the storm remains relatively weak."The convective activity remains patchy... The circulation is sprawling and still weak."Which areas are under a Tropical Storm Watch?The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for:Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama borderA Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours.Forecasters also warned that additional watches could be issued for parts of:-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana-Texasover the next day or two.Will it become a tropical storm?Yes—according to the current forecast.The NHC expects gradual strengthening, with Tropical Depression Two likely becoming a tropical storm Sunday night or Monday.Forecast intensity includes:-Sunday night: 35 mph-Monday: Tropical storm with 40 mph winds-Tuesday: Around 45 mph-Wednesday: Up to 50 mph (60 mph gusts)-Thursday: Remaining a 50 mph tropical storm before moving inland and gradually weakeningForecasters cautioned that strengthening could be slower than usual because of:-Dry air surrounding the storm-Northeasterly wind shear-A broad and poorly organized circulationThe amount of strengthening later in the week will depend largely on how much of the storm remains over warm Gulf waters instead of moving inland.Where is the storm expected to go?The depression is moving very slowly.The forecast calls for:-Slow north-northwest movement through Monday-A turn toward the west or west-northwest by midweekMovement near or along the northern Gulf CoastCurrent projections indicate the system could eventually track toward coastal Louisiana before moving inland toward Texas later in the week.The NHC noted that forecast confidence remains lower than usual because small track changes could significantly alter the amount of land interaction.What are the biggest threats?-Heavy rainfall-Rainfall is expected to be the most widespread hazard.Forecast totals include:-2 to 4 inches across much of the eastern and central Gulf Coast-Locally up to 8 inchesAreas expected to receive heavy rain include:-Western Florida-Southern Alabama-Mississippi-LouisianaThe NHC warned that this rainfall could produce flash flooding, especially in urban areas and locations with poor drainage.Tropical-storm-force windsTropical storm conditions are possible across the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday.Strong gusts could accompany rain bands well before the center of the storm approaches.Storm surgeThe NHC forecasts 1 to 3 feet of storm surge between:Indian PassChassahowitzka, FloridaOfficials warned that actual flooding will depend on the timing of high tide and local geography.Which states should monitor the storm?The NHC urged residents across the Gulf Coast to closely monitor future advisories.Besides Florida, officials specifically highlighted:-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana-Texasas areas where watches or warnings could become necessary during the comi
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