El Nino forecast: UN says record ocean warming could bring dangerous heat, droughts and floods worldwide
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world is entering "uncharted territory," cautioning that the developing El Niño will amplify the effects of climate change by bringing more heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and heavy rainfall.What is El Niño?El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.Although it is a recurring phenomenon, El Niño significantly alters global weather patterns by changing atmospheric circulation. It typically develops every two to seven years and lasts between nine months and a year.Scientists say El Niño itself is not caused by climate change, but when combined with long-term global warming, it can make extreme weather events more severe.Why is this El Niño different?According to scientists at Columbia University, the Pacific Ocean region used to measure El Niño's strength has reached its warmest level ever recorded for the 15th week after the event's formation—an unprecedented milestone this early in its development.Most climate models now suggest this El Niño could become one of the strongest, if not the strongest, on record when it peaks later this year, though scientists stress that forecasts are still subject to uncertainty.The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the event to persist through spring 2027.Why is the UN worried?The UN says El Niño is unfolding against the backdrop of record-breaking global ocean temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions.Speaking at a news conference, Guterres warned: "Two months ago, I warned that El Niño was arriving on our doorstep. Now it is inside the house—and turning up the heat."He described recent record heatwaves, devastating wildfires and deadly temperatures as only "a warm-up act," adding that the strengthening El Niño is "adding fuel to a planet already on fire."What weather impacts are expected?Scientists say El Niño's biggest impacts will emerge during the coming months, particularly in autumn and winter.Higher risk of drought and wildfiresThe WMO forecasts an increased likelihood of:-Drought across India, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia-Below-average rainfall in eastern and southern Australia-Dry conditions across parts of South America-Increased drought risk in southern Africa-Greater wildfire danger in several of these regions-More rainfall and floodingOther areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, including:-Much of the United States-Southern Europe-Some regions already affected by wildfiresHeavy rainfall raises the risk of flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage.How does climate change make El Niño worse?Scientists explain that oceans absorb most of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions.During El Niño, part of that stored heat is released into the atmosphere, pushing global temperatures even higher.Columbia University climate scientist Jeffrey Shaman said this process could contribute to exceptionally hot conditions next year, warning that the Northern Hemisphere "is going to possibly have a summer like we've never experienced globally."Even after El Niño fades, much of the released heat remains in the atmosphere, adding to the long-term warming trend.What is the UN calling for?The UN urged governments to use the months before El Niño reaches peak strength to prepare for its impacts.The WMO called for:-Stronger early warning systems-Better disaster preparedness-Measures to protect vulnerable communities from extreme heat-Greater resilience against droughts and floodsGuterres also renewed calls for reducing dependence on fossil fuels, arguing that climate change is intensifying natural weather cycles.He said governments must treat climate change as an exist
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