Trump-Xi summit: Iran war, trade, Taiwan and AI on the agenda, why China has the upper hand

In November last year, when President Donald Trump announced that he had accepted an invitation to visit China in April, the meeting’s agenda appeared straightforward enough. Trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies were spiralling into a full-blown tariff war, while Taiwan was the lingering flashpoint. Delayed by a month from its original schedule, the upcoming summit starting Wednesday now risks being consumed by a more compelling crisis: the war in Iran.While it is unclear where the West Asia conflict will go from here, even as an uneasy ceasefire continues to hold, two things are now evident: a resolution to the Iran war is ostensibly not that easy and China’s role will be crucial in whichever direction this conflict is headed. If Iran has to be brought back to the negotiating table in any constructive form, there seems to be a growing realisation in Washington DC that China is likely to play some kind of a role.Significance When Beijing officially confirmed the date of the state visit earlier this week, it marked the first visit to China from a sitting American president since Trump’s 2017 visit during his last term. This summit would be Trump’s seventh in-person meeting with President Xi Jinping. Trump is taking a big business delegation of over a dozen American CEOs with him, with Apple’s Tim Cook, Boeing chief Kelly Ortberg and Tesla’s Elon Musk part of his business entourage. The one conspicuous absence was Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who did not figure on an initial list of executives provided by the White House earlier this week. Reuters, however, reported on Wednesday, quoting two sources familiar with the matter, that Huang will join Trump’s delegation to China. Nvidia’s new H200 chips, which have not yet been sold to China, remain a point of contention between the two sides. The choice of the people on the delegation is being read as harbingers of what the administration in Washington DC is pivoting towards in terms of its business priorities with China. “Trump visiting China and meeting with Xi Jinping this week, surrounded by businessmen instead of China hawks, is incredibly helpful in yielding positive outcomes from discussions,” according to Brian Tycangco, analyst at Baltimore-based Stansberry Research. Trump’s visit will include bilateral talks, a state banquet, and a visit to the Temple of Heaven during the course of the visit spanning May 13-15. Later this year, a reciprocal visit to Washington could be on the cards for President Xi, and signal if the relationship is likely to endure. Apart from Iran and the agenda for the business delegation, other key issues could be on the table: the likely direction of global trade and competition in advanced technologies such as AI. An investment deal is being seen as a possible wild card entry to the list. According to experts, Beijing could possibly indicate its willingness to buy Boeing aircraft and American soybeans, alongside announcing a ‘Board of Trade’ and a parallel ‘Board of Investment’ that seem to have been discussed in previous official-level talks. The two sides are also reportedly thinking of establishing an AI safety dialogue.Story continues below this ad Rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait do seem partly fuelled by the Trump administration’s mixed signals about its Taipei policy. Last December, the US had announced an $11billion arms deal with Taiwan, triggering protests from the Chinese government. Trump, however, has since downplayed the US willingness to defend Taiwan. “He considers it to be a part of China,” Trump said of Xi, adding that “(it’s) up to him, what he’s going to be doing (on Taiwan).” China, which has been keen to position itself as a stabilising power, was conciliatory ahead of the meeting. “President Xi and President Trump — looking back at their past meetings, one message stands out: the steady development of China-US relations brings certainty and stability to the world,” Mao Ning, the Spokesperson of the Ministr